Many have assumed the United States and China would work out a trade deal. The tariffs and threats of further tariffs on Chinese exports to America—and the reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods shipped to China—were simply part of the negotiating process. It would all get sorted out quickly, and world trade would adjust to the new rules ironed out between the economic giants.But a funny thing happened on the way to a trade deal—it fell apart in spectacular fashion. Instead of a relaxation of economic hostilities, the conflict escalated with the Trump Administration potentially placing tariffs on essentially all goods from China.While it is tempting to frame this trade conflict in the context of America becoming tiresome of the treatment of its businesses, this does not capture the true nature of the dispute or its entrenchment and longevity. This is a “restarting of history”—a return of economic and governance ideologies battling for supremacy.Francis Fukuyama famously announced the “end of history” and the victory of liberal democracy and capitalism over all other challengers. Certainly, there were reasons to be hopeful. Capitalism and democracy had won the Cold War. The competition—Communism and is centralized power system—had collapsed in on itself. To Fukuyama, this was the last stand of a rival ideology against democracy and capitalism. No framework could compete.But rather than the end of history, 1989 was truly only the end of volume one. And, unlike the Mel Brooks version, there is a volume two.
