Israel’s Netanyahu Poised to Fall After Election, GeoQuant Says

(Bloomberg) — Data continue to indicate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party will lose power in elections set for September 17, according to GeoQuant, which calls itself an “AI-driven political risk intelligence” firm.Israel’s “Government Instability Risk” continues to spike going into the vote, according to GeoQuant, reinforcing the firm’s prediction since May that Netanyahu is set to fail. “Despite Netanyahu’s recent pledge to annex territory in the Jordan Valley if he is re-elected – the current Likud-led government is too weak to survive the election,” Geoquant said in a note.GeoQuant also flagged “Government Risk” at an all-time high in the firm’s nearly seven-year time series. “Institutional Support Risk,” which GeoQuant said “measures the incumbent’s support from key political, legal and administrative institutions,” is also at a new peak.That shows “Netanyahu’s failure to form a government in May, related opposition from rightist rival Avigdor Lieberman/Yisrael Beiteinu, and the persistent threat of a corruption indictment” have undermined his re-election,” they said. The firm’s “Mass Support Risk” is also running higher, but was below a 2017 high, “given Netanyahu’s strongman appeal.”Earlier, Dow Jones said that Netanyahu is ‘‘locked in a close election contest with his main rival, former Gen. Benny Gantz, with final polls ahead of Tuesday’s vote suggesting that neither have a clear path to governing.”To contact the reporter on this story: Felice Maranz in New York at [email protected] contact the editors responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at [email protected], Janet FreundFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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