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We have some ground to make up for this week after Russell Wilson dropped the ball, literally and figuratively, against the Arizona Cardinals and their backup quarterback Colt McCoy.
McCoy is quickly turning into the Josh McCown of his generation, serving as the guy that always surprises you not only that he’s still in the league, but that he can light up a team for 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
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Yes, the McCoy vs. Wilson quarterback duel didn’t go quite as we expected, but we hit on everything else, including the upset, thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ fractured—or maybe Covid—toe. We’re not sure, and once again it’s Rodgers’ fault as he claimed it was Covid toe before changing his mind and displaying his fractured toe to the world, whether we wanted to see it or not.
I, for one, was not ready to gaze upon the future Hall of Fame QB and Invermectin spokesman’s injured hoof as he put it right into the camera’s aperture, but I guess Rex Ryan deserved an early Christmas present.
To get that image from our minds, I have combed through the Week 12 odds at MaximBet and delivered you this plate of NFL wager charcuterie.
Lock Of The Week
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lamar Jackson has let us down before this season, but I’m giving him another shot. Mainly because he’s playing against Baker Mayfield, who currently has just one functioning arm and, more importantly, remains Baker Mayfield.
Baltimore has won three in a row over the Browns, putting up 31, 38 and 47 points in the process. Jackson is 4-1 over Cleveland. The Browns have not scored more than 16 points in a game since before the leaves changed.
Take the Ravens at -3.5 or the moneyline at -185.
Worst Games Of The Week
New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5)
Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Put yourself in the Houston Texans’ shoes for a moment. You had the most disastrous offseason in the modern NFL. You’re fielding the worst team, with the worst coach and the best player on your roster is playing Fruit Ninja on the sidelines because of “legal troubles” and, I’m thinking, horribly knotted muscles since he hasn’t been able to book a proper massage in months.
And with all that, you’re still looking at the No. 4 overall pick in April 2022’s NFL Draft. How is it possible there are three teams worse than the Texans in the NFL? They did everything right to be wrong. And yet, here they are. They are NFL’s version of the Cincinnati Bearcats, barely holding onto a College Football Playoff spot, knowing they could be screwed up at any moment.
Like beating the Jets (currently the No. 2 overall pick…again) Sunday, for instance with a returning Zach Wilson, for whatever that’s worth.
The team holding the No. 3 pick is, of course, the Jacksonville Jaguars. And you’d think they’d be safe except they’re hosting the Atlanta Falcons, who have turned losing into a science. They have been on the cutting edge of NFL defeat since they blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl to the New England Patriots and decided to make that their entire identity.
Atlanta has simplified its losing strategy over the last two weeks by scoring no touchdowns altogether.
Take the Texans moneyline (-140) and/or the Falcons moneyline (-135) or just avoid these two games like Aaron Rodgers does 21st century medicine.
A Shocking Upset Of The Tampa Bay Buccaneers
People have been predicting Tom Brady’s eventual stumble over the QB cliff for the last half decade or so and all he’s done is win three more Super Bowls in the process. While I’m not prepared to say he’s losing something, in back-to-back losses to the New Orleans Saints and Washington Football Team, Tom Terrific turned into Tom Turnover, tossing four interceptions with one pick-six that ended any chance at a comeback against New Orleans.
The Bucs did knock off the New York Giants last week, ending Jason Garrett’s tenure as offensive coordinator with the slowest of slow claps, but all that proved is that the Giants are terrible. And we already had evidence of that.
The Colts have won three straight and nearly knocked off the full-strength Tennessee Titans before that. Last week, they obliterated the Buffalo Bills 41-15 with Jonathan Taylor scoring five touchdowns and single handedly saving every plywood and plastic folding table in upstate New York from destruction.
Indy is at home. They have a defensive front that can create inside pressure without blitzing and Carson Wentz is putting together a Pro Bowl worthy campaign and, while unvaccinated, has not taken a single camel hemorrhoid suppository in the process.
Take the Colts at +3.
Drop $10 On A Four-Team Parlay
It must be nice to have Washington on your side. Every action has its equal, opposite reactions. Thanks to Hamilton our cabinet’s fractured into factions. Try not to crack under the stress, we’re breaking down like fractions. But dropping a Hamilton on a winning four-team parlay will pretty much fix everything.
We’ll build this one as we always do, taking our upset’s moneyline, Colts (+140) and adding some extras too it like a Carvel’s Sundae. I like the Titans (+245), Broncos (+125) and Vikings (+155).
Everyone in NFL punditry is in love with the New England Patriots again, and Bill Simmons’ nipples have been hard enough to cut diamonds for a month. So, now is the perfect time to drop a game, especially since Tennessee has little trouble knocking off anyone with a winning record. It’s the garbage gyre teams that give them fits.
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye, defeated the Dallas Cowboys a few weeks ago, and have just locked two of their best offensive weapons—Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick—with long term deals. The Chargers are in full Bengals/Bills territory in that we have no clue which team is showing up week to week.
Lastly, the Vikings have all the tools—a running game, passing game and an unvaccinated quarterback—to knock off a surging San Francisco 49ers team feeling themselves a little too much.
A $10 parlay bet win on these four teams pays $469.
Adam Greene is @TheFirstMan on Twitter.
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