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Well, if you thought there was any chance the 2022 NFL season would start making sense, last week tossed a bucket of icy sewer water all over that. Six underdogs won outright. Rookie Baley Zappe of the New England Patriots looked like Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Rodgers looked like shit.
In fact, the Green Bay Packers have lost in back-to-back weeks as betting favorites for the first time since 1998. It was a much more innocent time, then, when present-day Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was just 15 years old and the guy he would replace, Brett Favre, had yet to commit wholesale theft from Mississippi welfare recipients.
We can only now look back at that era with a sad, sweet regret and the knowledge that, for those of us who have viewed “Lil’ Favre,” mushrooms are permanently off the menu.
But with this chaos comes the chance to make some bank and we have the NFL odds, lines and totals courtesy of MaximBet to do just that.
Lock Of The Week
Houston Texans At Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5)
While entropy may be the universe’s natural state, the NFL usually begins to make sense at this point. But, as I mentioned above, the league has gotten all Neil DeGrasse Tyson-y on us and is really sticking the science in our faces this year. “Any Given Sunday” has turned into “Every Fricken’ Sunday.”
It was tough to pick a lock, but this one looks like best possible scenario to me. What makes me nervous about it? The Texans fired Executive Vice President Jack Easterby, their own version of Jim Jones minus the Flavor-Aid and kick ass Elvis sunglasses. This means that Houston has a real shot at being a professional football team from here on out. I can hardly remember what that looks like.
But this present Texans squad still has Easterby’s stink all over it and, as such, is doomed to finish with a losing record. The Raiders are significantly better than their current 1-4 mark suggests and should really take the opportunity, coming off their bye, to put a solid beat down on Houston, just the second squad they’ll face this season that didn’t end 2021 with a winning record.
Take the Raiders at -6.5 or their moneyline at -312.
Worst Games Of The Week
New York Jets At Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5) At Carolina Panthers
Russell Wilson brought all his cooking utensils to Denver and has immediately given the Broncos food poisoning. The health department doesn’t have to shut down the “Let Russ Cook” Broncos bistro, because opposing defenses are doing it for them. Mr. Unlimited said, “Let’s Ride,” and then drove the team straight into a giant pile of cow shit like Biff Tannen chasing after Marty McFly.
Meanwhile, the Jets are playing winning football, running an offense that is piling up the points. And Zach Wilson is so busy scoring touchdowns, he not scoring with anyone’s Gam-Gam. It’s a weird time.
The Panthers are still looking at a PJ Walker as their starting quarterback and have already started a fire sale on their talent. How much action Christian McCaffery will see Sunday will depend solely on what’s on the table from other teams in a trade for his services.
And, hey, Tom Brady has done nothing but ruin my life personally for the last 20-plus seasons, but it’s no fun to see hurricanes and a deteriorating home life messing up his final year on the field with the Bucs. I wanted to see Brady’s 2022 campaign end the old-fashioned way, with Aaron Donald piledriving his face into the Earth’s dense, super-heated core in the NFC Divisional Round.
Take the Jets at -1.5 or their moneyline at -108 and/or the Buccaneers at -11.5 or their moneyline at -500.
A Shocking Upset Of The Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons At Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)
The Falcons have been tougher to get rid of this season than an HPV outbreak on Florida State’s sorority row. Atlanta has a 3-3 record and all three losses have been by a single score. Does that mean I think they’ll beat the Bengals?
It’s possible, but not likely. But that -5.5 line is pretty big for a Cincinnati team that has been held to 20 points or less three times this season and needed a score in the final two minutes of their game against an Andy Dalton-led New Orleans Saints team to escape with a .500 record.
I like the Bengals. I’m ready to marry off a kid to Joe Burrow just like every father who wants to see his daughter retire at 30 after a lucrative, soul-crushing, multimillion-dollar divorce settlement. But I feel Cincy will be more than happy to get out of this one with a field goal victory.
Take the Falcons at +5.5.
Drop $10 On A Four-Game Parlay
I am not the type for turning into a detective. Got two of my own phones, barely even check ‘em. Uber Eats the food, I don’t call, I just text it. Cashed on bail, so thank goodness I made some cash on this dandy little four-game parlay.
This is an easy one this week. We take our Falcons moneyline at +210 and since we already like the Jets to “upset” the hapless and emaciated Broncos, we’ll take theirs too at -108.
To that, we’re going to add the New York Giants (+130) and the San Francisco 49ers (+120). Why?
Well, I’ve picked against the Giants all season and all they’ve done is open 5-1 and, in consecutive weeks, beat the Packers and Baltimore Ravens. And now they’re underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars?
Then, you have a Super Bowl LIV rematch, pitting the 49ers, at home, against a Kansas City Chiefs team coming off a monster, last-second loss to the Buffalo Bills in a revenge game. This is a prime spot for a real let down and, since it’s not the postseason, there’s a great chance Kyle Shanahan won’t blow a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.
A $10 winning parlay bet on these four teams pays $292.
Adam Greene is @TheFirstMan on Twitter
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